Page 1 of 1
Stafford Worst Case Scenario - Cap Implications
Posted: August 3rd, 2025, 8:24 am
by GlendoraRam
I like to look at the best and worst case scenarios for every situation. At this point, I consider retirement a remote possibility - but a possibility nonetheless.
If Stafford were to retire, the salary cap impact would be huge.
The Los Angeles Rams would face severe salary cap implications if Matthew Stafford were forced to retire, primarily due to the acceleration of unamortized bonuses from his restructured contract into dead money. Based on current contract details, Stafford’s retirement in 2025 would result in approximately $112.3 million in dead cap for the Rams in 2025.
This figure includes the prorated portions of signing bonuses, restructure bonuses, and option bonuses accelerating from future years (including void years through 2030), as well as any applicable guaranteed money he might be entitled to collect if the retirement is deemed injury-related.
Stafford’s current 2025 cap hit is about $47.5 million.
Retiring would remove this hit but replace it with the $112.3 million dead money charge, resulting in a net loss of roughly $64.8 million in cap space. With the Rams currently having about $20 million in available cap space as of August 2025, this would push them approximately $45 million over the 2025 NFL salary cap of $279.2 million.
The team would need to make immediate adjustments, such as cutting or trading other players, restructuring contracts, or negotiating extensions to create space and comply with league rules.
Since the retirement would occur after June 1, 2025, the Rams could not designate it as a post-June 1 transaction to spread the dead money over 2025 and 2026—all $112.3 million would hit the 2025 cap immediately. This would limit their ability to sign free agents, extend contracts, or address roster needs during the season, potentially hampering competitiveness.
If the retirement is forced due to injury (e.g., his ongoing back issues), Stafford could claim his $40 million in 2025 guarantees under injury protection clauses, which would be paid out and count toward the dead money total.
However, the 2026 guarantees ($40 million) have not yet vested and would likely be voided, providing no additional dead money beyond the accelerated bonuses. The Rams might negotiate an injury settlement to reduce the financial impact, but this is not guaranteed and could still leave substantial dead money on the books.
In future years, the implications would be minimal, as most of the dead money is front-loaded into 2025, with smaller prorated amounts (e.g., $41.9 million in 2026 if not accelerated fully) already accounted for in void years. Overall, this scenario would force the Rams into a rebuild mode, similar to how the Buccaneers absorbed $35 million in dead money from Tom Brady’s retirement, exacerbating cap constraints and roster-building challenges.
Re: Stafford Worst Case Scenario - Cap Implications
Posted: August 3rd, 2025, 10:22 am
by DelMar
Knowing back problems well, and also looking at tealeaves w Matt’s back issues… imo, I would not be shocked at all at this point if Matt just retires. Hate saying it, but I think Matt and the Rams maybe close to this happening.
The back is the one thing you can’t keep screwing with. One big hit on Matt’s backside… not sure it’s worth being paralyzed for life.
*Because the $112+M cap hit would just kill us, maybe they keep him on as backup

.
Real Pickle here
Re: Stafford Worst Case Scenario - Cap Implications
Posted: August 3rd, 2025, 3:08 pm
by malibu
The problem I have with this back "issue" it seems to me to have just come up in camp or after the season is there any justification for the occurrence? Did he just pull a muscle, was it on a play in OTAs or what. I never heard a thing about his back last season.
Re: Stafford Worst Case Scenario - Cap Implications
Posted: August 3rd, 2025, 3:22 pm
by Jacksnow
GlendoraRam wrote: ↑August 3rd, 2025, 8:24 am
I like to look at the best and worst case scenarios for every situation. At this point, I consider retirement a remote possibility - but a possibility nonetheless.
If Stafford were to retire, the salary cap impact would be huge.
The Los Angeles Rams would face severe salary cap implications if Matthew Stafford were forced to retire, primarily due to the acceleration of unamortized bonuses from his restructured contract into dead money. Based on current contract details, Stafford’s retirement in 2025 would result in approximately $112.3 million in dead cap for the Rams in 2025.
This figure includes the prorated portions of signing bonuses, restructure bonuses, and option bonuses accelerating from future years (including void years through 2030), as well as any applicable guaranteed money he might be entitled to collect if the retirement is deemed injury-related.
Stafford’s current 2025 cap hit is about $47.5 million.
Retiring would remove this hit but replace it with the $112.3 million dead money charge, resulting in a net loss of roughly $64.8 million in cap space. With the Rams currently having about $20 million in available cap space as of August 2025, this would push them approximately $45 million over the 2025 NFL salary cap of $279.2 million.
The team would need to make immediate adjustments, such as cutting or trading other players, restructuring contracts, or negotiating extensions to create space and comply with league rules.
Since the retirement would occur after June 1, 2025, the Rams could not designate it as a post-June 1 transaction to spread the dead money over 2025 and 2026—all $112.3 million would hit the 2025 cap immediately. This would limit their ability to sign free agents, extend contracts, or address roster needs during the season, potentially hampering competitiveness.
If the retirement is forced due to injury (e.g., his ongoing back issues), Stafford could claim his $40 million in 2025 guarantees under injury protection clauses, which would be paid out and count toward the dead money total.
However, the 2026 guarantees ($40 million) have not yet vested and would likely be voided, providing no additional dead money beyond the accelerated bonuses. The Rams might negotiate an injury settlement to reduce the financial impact, but this is not guaranteed and could still leave substantial dead money on the books.
In future years, the implications would be minimal, as most of the dead money is front-loaded into 2025, with smaller prorated amounts (e.g., $41.9 million in 2026 if not accelerated fully) already accounted for in void years. Overall, this scenario would force the Rams into a rebuild mode, similar to how the Buccaneers absorbed $35 million in dead money from Tom Brady’s retirement, exacerbating cap constraints and roster-building challenges.
YOU HAVE GOT TO BE KIDDING MALIBU! What's the best case scenario? I didn't realize the predicament the Rams would be in.
Re: Stafford Worst Case Scenario - Cap Implications
Posted: August 3rd, 2025, 3:25 pm
by Jacksnow
malibu wrote: ↑August 3rd, 2025, 3:08 pm
The problem I have with this back "issue" it seems to me to have just come up in camp or after the season is there any justification for the occurrence? Did he just pull a muscle, was it on a play in OTAs or what. I never heard a thing about his back last season.
Didn't Glendora state he was being consulted by some top gun back surgeon? Which isn't good. Just remember how Joe Montana dropped off after his back issue.
Re: Stafford Worst Case Scenario - Cap Implications
Posted: August 3rd, 2025, 4:44 pm
by GlendoraRam
Jacksnow wrote: ↑August 3rd, 2025, 3:25 pm
malibu wrote: ↑August 3rd, 2025, 3:08 pm
The problem I have with this back "issue" it seems to me to have just come up in camp or after the season is there any justification for the occurrence? Did he just pull a muscle, was it on a play in OTAs or what. I never heard a thing about his back last season.
Didn't Glendora state he was being consulted by some top gun back surgeon? Which isn't good. Just remember how Joe Montana dropped off after his back issue.
He missed 8 games in 2022 for a concussion, a spinal cord contusion, and an elbow injury. In 2019, he was out due to broken bones in his back, It was later revealed that he had played through a broken back during the 2018 season.
In 2024, according to his wife, “he cracked four ribs, but just didn't really let anyone in to know really much about it," Stafford said. "Continued his everyday process like nothing was wrong, would come home and be miserable." After the loss to the Eagles, Matthew Stafford said he would "take some time to think about" his future.
He also has had other related soreness over the last few years.
Re: Stafford Worst Case Scenario - Cap Implications
Posted: August 3rd, 2025, 9:44 pm
by DVA_ram33
GlendoraRam wrote: ↑August 3rd, 2025, 4:44 pm
Jacksnow wrote: ↑August 3rd, 2025, 3:25 pm
Didn't Glendora state he was being consulted by some top gun back surgeon? Which isn't good. Just remember how Joe Montana dropped off after his back issue.
He missed 8 games in 2022 for a concussion, a spinal cord contusion, and an elbow injury. In 2019, he was out due to broken bones in his back, It was later revealed that he had played through a broken back during the 2018 season.
In 2024, according to his wife, “he cracked four ribs, but just didn't really let anyone in to know really much about it," Stafford said. "Continued his everyday process like nothing was wrong, would come home and be miserable." After the loss to the Eagles, Matthew Stafford said he would "take some time to think about" his future.
He also has had other related soreness over the last few years.
The dude is a warrior... i wouldn't bet against him being out there game 1 so easily !!!
But yeah i think the clock is running and we need to find his replacement sooner rather than later... I personally think the Rams are a win now team so i just don't see them drafting a QB to replace Stafford... To me its more likely they use the capital to trade for someone.
Re: Stafford Worst Case Scenario - Cap Implications
Posted: August 4th, 2025, 7:01 am
by Slickjack
Worst case to me is that they stash him on the IR and see if he can come back in a couple of months. If Jimmy G can hold down a .500 record (at least), this could be a scenario that has played out a few times in the NFL (Brady/Bledsoe, Sims/Hostettler) although not identical.
Re: Stafford Worst Case Scenario - Cap Implications
Posted: August 7th, 2025, 9:39 pm
by NN1Badboy
He's not retiring. He may not start but if he came in after about game 5 we should be in good position for him to make the push for a Super Bowl run before he retires at the end of the season. That's my two cents.
Re: Stafford Worst Case Scenario - Cap Implications
Posted: August 7th, 2025, 9:47 pm
by GlendoraRam
NN1Badboy wrote: ↑August 7th, 2025, 9:39 pm
He's not retiring. He may not start but if he came in after about game 5 we should be in good position for him to make the push for a Super Bowl run before he retires at the end of the season. That's my two cents.
With the latest update on his injury, it appears he will be fine.
I was thinking worse case scenario… if he were to suddenly retire, the Rams would be in deep trouble cap wise.